Brazil_state Results

combine estimates

Stacking Estimate (95% CI) SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
08_1_11 1.29 (0.94, 1.61) 1.38 (1.16, 1.6) 1.2 (0.95, 1.54) 1.3 (1.03, 1.67) 1.11 (0.88, 1.41)
08_1_12 1.12 (0.78, 1.62) 1.34 (1.1, 1.6) 1.12 (0.78, 1.61) 1.19 (0.86, 1.67) 1.23 (0.99, 1.54)
08_1_13 0.91 (0.67, 1.22) 1.09 (0.83, 1.37) 0.9 (0.68, 1.17) 0.91 (0.67, 1.21) 0.87 (0.66, 1.11)
08_1_15 1.02 (0.82, 1.3) 1.21 (1.01, 1.42) 1.04 (0.83, 1.29) 1.07 (0.87, 1.32) 1 (0.81, 1.23)
08_1_17 0.92 (0.75, 1.14) 1.17 (1, 1.38) 0.92 (0.75, 1.14) 0.93 (0.76, 1.12) 1.11 (0.94, 1.3)
08_2_21 0.99 (0.63, 1.39) 1.14 (0.79, 1.47) 0.73 (0.56, 0.95) 0.99 (0.74, 1.29) 0.65 (0.41, 1.01)
08_2_22 0.96 (0.75, 1.27) 0.92 (0.74, 1.12) 1.01 (0.79, 1.29) 1.02 (0.78, 1.34) 0.87 (0.69, 1.11)
08_2_23 0.98 (0.84, 1.21) 0.97 (0.83, 1.18) 0.98 (0.8, 1.22) 0.81 (0.65, 1) 1.15 (1.01, 1.31)
08_2_24 0.82 (0.66, 1.05) 1 (0.83, 1.2) 0.86 (0.68, 1.09) 0.83 (0.64, 1.08) 0.81 (0.67, 0.98)
08_2_25 1.58 (0.83, 2.21) 1.68 (1.07, 2.23) 1.13 (0.9, 1.43) 1 (0.77, 1.29) 0.95 (0.77, 1.17)
08_2_26 1.51 (1.27, 1.86) 1.45 (1.25, 1.87) 1.42 (1.21, 1.67) 1.55 (1.31, 1.87) 1.44 (1.21, 1.72)
08_2_27 0.77 (0.58, 1.04) 1.29 (1.06, 1.55) 1.07 (0.79, 1.44) 1.27 (0.94, 1.7) 0.77 (0.58, 1.04)
08_2_28 1.48 (1.17, 2.01) 1.45 (1.21, 1.9) 1.36 (0.99, 1.89) 1.53 (1.12, 2.1) 1.46 (1.23, 1.74)
08_2_29 0.96 (0.79, 1.16) 0.93 (0.78, 1.07) 0.87 (0.74, 1.03) 0.97 (0.81, 1.18) 0.89 (0.77, 1.03)
08_3_31 0.89 (0.78, 1.02) 0.86 (0.69, 1.1) 0.93 (0.84, 1.04) 1.1 (0.99, 1.24) 0.89 (0.78, 1.02)
08_3_32 1.11 (0.96, 1.28) 1.36 (1.04, 1.52) 0.99 (0.87, 1.13) 1.27 (1.11, 1.45) 1.11 (0.96, 1.28)
08_3_33 1.03 (0.88, 1.23) 1.12 (0.96, 1.27) 1.01 (0.89, 1.15) 1.16 (1.01, 1.31) 1.01 (0.88, 1.16)
08_3_35 1.01 (0.9, 1.11) 1.02 (0.93, 1.11) 0.97 (0.88, 1.07) 1.01 (0.91, 1.12) 0.98 (0.89, 1.08)
08_4_41 0.88 (0.8, 0.98) 0.92 (0.81, 1.07) 0.89 (0.8, 0.99) 0.86 (0.78, 0.95) 0.89 (0.8, 0.99)
08_4_42 0.84 (0.72, 1.26) 1.11 (0.95, 1.28) 1.07 (0.96, 1.19) 1.18 (1.04, 1.33) 0.83 (0.72, 0.94)
08_4_43 0.8 (0.69, 1.17) 1.1 (0.9, 1.25) 0.79 (0.68, 0.9) 0.79 (0.69, 0.9) 0.94 (0.84, 1.06)
08_5_50 1.31 (1.08, 1.63) 1.49 (1.25, 1.74) 1.18 (0.98, 1.41) 1.44 (1.21, 1.72) 1.29 (1.07, 1.56)
08_5_51 1.29 (0.89, 1.54) 1.39 (1.15, 1.55) 1.04 (0.86, 1.27) 1.37 (1.13, 1.67) 1.15 (0.86, 1.53)
08_5_52 1.13 (0.96, 1.61) 1.5 (1.19, 1.73) 1.06 (0.87, 1.28) 1.12 (0.91, 1.35) 1.12 (0.95, 1.3)
08_5_53 1.2 (1.04, 1.38) 1.23 (1.05, 1.45) 1.1 (0.88, 1.35) 0.97 (0.79, 1.18) 1.19 (1.05, 1.36)
08_1_AA 1.04 (0.92, 1.19) 1.14 (0.98, 1.3) 1.04 (0.9, 1.2) 1.07 (0.94, 1.21) 1.04 (0.92, 1.19)
08_2_AA 1.02 (0.85, 1.17) 1.04 (0.86, 1.18) 1 (0.85, 1.17) 1.05 (0.88, 1.23) 0.97 (0.85, 1.11)
08_3_AA 1 (0.91, 1.09) 1 (0.92, 1.09) 0.97 (0.87, 1.07) 1.07 (0.97, 1.18) 0.98 (0.88, 1.07)
08_4_AA 0.89 (0.81, 1) 0.89 (0.79, 1.07) 0.89 (0.81, 0.96) 0.89 (0.82, 0.97) 0.94 (0.86, 1.01)
08_5_AA 1.08 (0.92, 1.4) 1.3 (1.03, 1.49) 1.1 (0.95, 1.28) 1.22 (1.05, 1.41) 1.06 (0.92, 1.24)
08_A_AA 0.99 (0.91, 1.08) 0.99 (0.9, 1.11) 0.98 (0.9, 1.09) 1.05 (0.95, 1.15) 0.99 (0.91, 1.08)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
08_1_11 0.296 0.000 0.426 0.278
08_1_12 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000
08_1_13 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000
08_1_15 0.111 0.000 0.000 0.889
08_1_17 0.000 0.999 0.001 0.000
08_2_21 0.308 0.173 0.519 0.000
08_2_22 0.589 0.000 0.411 0.000
08_2_23 0.942 0.000 0.000 0.058
08_2_24 0.068 0.000 0.092 0.840
08_2_25 0.782 0.000 0.000 0.218
08_2_26 0.389 0.030 0.581 0.000
08_2_27 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
08_2_28 0.000 0.000 0.484 0.516
08_2_29 0.341 0.000 0.659 0.000
08_3_31 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.999
08_3_32 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
08_3_33 0.240 0.000 0.000 0.760
08_3_35 0.596 0.000 0.000 0.404
08_4_41 0.045 0.592 0.250 0.114
08_4_42 0.000 0.000 0.168 0.832
08_4_43 0.143 0.857 0.000 0.000
08_5_50 0.027 0.000 0.137 0.836
08_5_51 0.452 0.000 0.000 0.548
08_5_52 0.125 0.000 0.000 0.875
08_5_53 0.232 0.000 0.000 0.768
08_1_AA 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
08_2_AA 0.737 0.000 0.000 0.263
08_3_AA 0.749 0.000 0.000 0.251
08_4_AA 0.200 0.631 0.000 0.170
08_5_AA 0.168 0.000 0.000 0.832
08_A_AA 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
08_1_11 N00_99 0.9566794 a10_b99_nopneumo 0.1313781 ach_noj 0.1250294
08_1_12 ach_noj 0.1298632 I00_99 0.0918114 N00_99 0.0893311
08_1_13 ach_noj 0.4760018 I00_99 0.2152938 C00_D48 0.1778642
08_1_15 N00_99 0.9396948 E00_99 0.0782560 ach_noj 0.0721666
08_1_17 ach_noj 0.9149632 E00_99 0.2273619 E10_14 0.2223731
08_2_21 D50_89 0.8749244 I00_99 0.2380769 N39 0.1856755
08_2_22 I00_99 0.6312449 ach_noj 0.4763394 E10_14 0.0715865
08_2_23 M00_99 0.9655936 E00_99 0.8286428 E10_14 0.1548304
08_2_24 I60_64 0.9820904 a10_b99_nopneumo 0.5401525 ach_noj 0.4701233
08_2_25 E00_99 0.9882633 I00_99 0.8374896 E10_14 0.2892257
08_2_26 S00_T99 0.9415834 ach_noj 0.8158441 E00_99 0.2028184
08_2_27 I60_64 0.3151084 ach_noj 0.2105602 E10_14 0.1935400
08_2_28 K00_99 0.2364395 C00_D48 0.1042398 ach_noj 0.0949976
08_2_29 I00_99 0.5675501 ach_noj 0.3888210 I60_64 0.0763523
08_3_31 ach_noj 0.8338989 M00_99 0.1878722 N39 0.1169627
08_3_32 H00_99_SY 0.8827894 A41 0.8202820 ach_noj 0.2003184
08_3_33 D50_89 0.2549701 N00_99 0.2142492 H00_99_SY 0.1300944
08_3_35 A41 0.9698434 E00_99 0.0876353 E10_14 0.0570507
08_4_41 A41 0.9959594 N00_99 0.4945217 ach_noj 0.3439978
08_4_42 ach_noj 0.9818160 A41 0.3470775 pandemic 0.2754416
08_4_43 A41 1.0000000 E10_14 0.7947447 M00_99 0.1375145
08_5_50 E00_99 0.4389210 N39 0.1079887 ach_noj 0.0610057
08_5_51 ach_noj 0.0746387 E00_99 0.0548453 I00_99 0.0413576
08_5_52 E00_99 0.6979070 G00_99_SY 0.2741004 C00_D48 0.2072047
08_5_53 ach_noj 0.8086418 a10_b99_nopneumo 0.1945805 I00_99 0.0895442
08_1_AA a10_b99_nopneumo 0.4293479 ach_noj 0.3202922 N00_99 0.2116752
08_2_AA I00_99 0.8094848 L00_99 0.2636119 ach_noj 0.2437557
08_3_AA A41 0.9992494 N00_99 0.0757039 N39 0.0338120
08_4_AA A41 0.9999876 S00_T99 0.6970962 N39 0.1562734
08_5_AA E00_99 0.6937011 I60_64 0.2032903 N39 0.1520439
08_A_AA A41 0.7017816 I00_99 0.5594649 H00_99_SY 0.2602208

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
08_1_11 1.38 (1.16, 1.6) N00_99 0.96 1.26 (1.03, 1.63) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.13 1.26 (1.03, 1.59) S00_T99 0.05 1.26 (1.04, 1.6)
08_1_12 1.34 (1.1, 1.6) I00_99 0.09 1.34 (1.06, 1.63) N00_99 0.09 1.33 (1.06, 1.57) pandemic 0.08 1.31 (1.04, 1.57)
08_1_13 1.09 (0.83, 1.37) I00_99 0.22 1.1 (0.84, 1.4) C00_D48 0.18 1.05 (0.82, 1.38) N00_99 0.07 1.06 (0.82, 1.42)
08_1_15 1.21 (1.01, 1.42) N00_99 0.94 1.18 (0.77, 1.46) E00_99 0.08 1.18 (0.77, 1.45) N39 0.06 1.18 (0.79, 1.46)
08_1_17 1.17 (1, 1.38) E00_99 0.23 1.15 (0.97, 1.36) E10_14 0.22 1.15 (0.97, 1.35) I00_99 0.1 1.16 (1, 1.36)
08_2_21 1.14 (0.79, 1.47) D50_89 0.87 1 (0.68, 1.44) I00_99 0.24 0.98 (0.69, 1.46) N39 0.19 0.94 (0.66, 1.35)
08_2_22 0.92 (0.74, 1.12) I00_99 0.63 0.9 (0.72, 1.12) E10_14 0.07 0.9 (0.72, 1.12) D50_89 0.06 0.9 (0.71, 1.12)
08_2_23 0.97 (0.83, 1.18) M00_99 0.97 1.18 (0.97, 1.34) E00_99 0.83 1.2 (0.96, 1.35) E10_14 0.15 1.19 (0.96, 1.57)
08_2_24 1 (0.83, 1.2) I60_64 0.98 1.2 (0.97, 1.48) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.54 1.2 (0.96, 1.5) I00_99 0.04 1.16 (0.9, 1.4)
08_2_25 1.68 (1.07, 2.23) E00_99 0.99 1.69 (1.07, 2.33) I00_99 0.84 1.59 (0.99, 1.99) E10_14 0.29 1.63 (1.03, 2.01)
08_2_26 1.45 (1.25, 1.87) S00_T99 0.94 1.59 (1.33, 1.95) E00_99 0.2 1.47 (1.2, 1.74) I00_99 0.17 1.5 (1.2, 1.74)
08_2_27 1.29 (1.06, 1.55) I60_64 0.32 1.31 (1.05, 1.59) E10_14 0.19 1.33 (1.08, 1.6) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.11 1.32 (1.06, 1.59)
08_2_28 1.45 (1.21, 1.9) K00_99 0.24 1.44 (1.19, 2.07) C00_D48 0.1 1.43 (1.19, 1.94) E00_99 0.09 1.41 (1.18, 1.76)
08_2_29 0.93 (0.78, 1.07) I00_99 0.57 0.89 (0.66, 1.05) I60_64 0.08 0.89 (0.7, 1.05) K00_99 0.06 0.89 (0.66, 1.05)
08_3_31 0.86 (0.69, 1.1) M00_99 0.19 0.87 (0.73, 1.09) N39 0.12 0.87 (0.74, 1.08) S00_T99 0.11 0.86 (0.74, 1.04)
08_3_32 1.36 (1.04, 1.52) H00_99_SY 0.88 1.14 (0.93, 1.51) A41 0.82 1.12 (0.91, 1.52) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.05 1.1 (0.9, 1.39)
08_3_33 1.12 (0.96, 1.27) D50_89 0.25 1.12 (0.95, 1.31) N00_99 0.21 1.14 (0.96, 1.3) H00_99_SY 0.13 1.14 (0.9, 1.29)
08_3_35 1.02 (0.93, 1.11) A41 0.97 1.08 (0.94, 1.26) E00_99 0.09 1.03 (0.91, 1.15) E10_14 0.06 1.03 (0.9, 1.16)
08_4_41 0.92 (0.81, 1.07) A41 1 0.98 (0.81, 1.14) N00_99 0.49 1.01 (0.81, 1.15) C00_D48 0.28 1.02 (0.83, 1.15)
08_4_42 1.11 (0.95, 1.28) A41 0.35 1.09 (0.87, 1.28) pandemic 0.28 1.07 (0.82, 1.26) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.25 1.09 (0.78, 1.28)
08_4_43 1.1 (0.9, 1.25) A41 1 0.97 (0.72, 1.26) E10_14 0.79 0.87 (0.67, 1.27) M00_99 0.14 0.84 (0.67, 1.27)
08_5_50 1.49 (1.25, 1.74) E00_99 0.44 1.57 (1.31, 1.79) N39 0.11 1.58 (1.28, 1.77) N00_99 0.05 1.59 (1.24, 1.78)
08_5_51 1.39 (1.15, 1.55) E00_99 0.05 1.39 (1.04, 1.55) I00_99 0.04 1.38 (1.03, 1.56) I60_64 0.03 1.39 (1.02, 1.56)
08_5_52 1.5 (1.19, 1.73) E00_99 0.7 1.42 (1.06, 1.78) G00_99_SY 0.27 1.4 (1.04, 1.75) C00_D48 0.21 1.39 (1.03, 1.73)
08_5_53 1.23 (1.05, 1.45) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.19 1.24 (1.06, 1.48) I00_99 0.09 1.24 (1.06, 1.47) K00_99 0.06 1.24 (1.06, 1.47)
08_1_AA 1.14 (0.98, 1.3) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.43 1.16 (0.97, 1.32) N00_99 0.21 1.15 (0.93, 1.32) L00_99 0.17 1.16 (0.96, 1.32)
08_2_AA 1.04 (0.86, 1.18) I00_99 0.81 0.96 (0.79, 1.13) L00_99 0.26 0.97 (0.78, 1.13) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.13 0.99 (0.83, 1.15)
08_3_AA 1 (0.92, 1.09) A41 1 1.08 (0.96, 1.19) N00_99 0.08 1.07 (0.94, 1.19) N39 0.03 1.07 (0.92, 1.18)
08_4_AA 0.89 (0.79, 1.07) A41 1 0.8 (0.7, 1.06) S00_T99 0.7 0.88 (0.77, 1.1) N39 0.16 0.97 (0.78, 1.14)
08_5_AA 1.3 (1.03, 1.49) E00_99 0.69 1.2 (0.9, 1.43) I60_64 0.2 1.21 (0.9, 1.43) N39 0.15 1.19 (0.91, 1.41)
08_A_AA 0.99 (0.9, 1.11) A41 0.7 1.06 (0.92, 1.19) I00_99 0.56 1.04 (0.92, 1.15) H00_99_SY 0.26 1 (0.88, 1.1)

Plots

08_1_11

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

08_1_12

## Warning: Removed 2 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

08_1_13

08_1_15

08_1_17

08_2_21

08_2_22

08_2_23

08_2_24

08_2_25

08_2_26

## Warning: Removed 3 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

## Warning: Removed 2 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

## Warning: Removed 3 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

## Warning: Removed 3 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

08_2_27

08_2_28

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

## Warning: Removed 2 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

08_2_29

08_3_31

08_3_32

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

08_3_33

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08_3_35

08_4_41

08_4_42

08_4_43

08_5_50

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

## Warning: Removed 4 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

08_5_51

## Warning: Removed 3 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

08_5_52

## Warning: Removed 4 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

08_5_53

08_1_AA

08_2_AA

08_3_AA

08_4_AA

08_5_AA

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

08_A_AA