Synthetic Controls
Report generated Wednesday, July 25, 2018
Brazil_state Results
combine estimates
| Stacking Estimate (95% CI) | SC Estimate (95% CI) | Time trend Estimate (95% CI) | Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) | STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08_1_11 | 1.29 (0.94, 1.61) | 1.38 (1.16, 1.6) | 1.2 (0.95, 1.54) | 1.3 (1.03, 1.67) | 1.11 (0.88, 1.41) |
| 08_1_12 | 1.12 (0.78, 1.62) | 1.34 (1.1, 1.6) | 1.12 (0.78, 1.61) | 1.19 (0.86, 1.67) | 1.23 (0.99, 1.54) |
| 08_1_13 | 0.91 (0.67, 1.22) | 1.09 (0.83, 1.37) | 0.9 (0.68, 1.17) | 0.91 (0.67, 1.21) | 0.87 (0.66, 1.11) |
| 08_1_15 | 1.02 (0.82, 1.3) | 1.21 (1.01, 1.42) | 1.04 (0.83, 1.29) | 1.07 (0.87, 1.32) | 1 (0.81, 1.23) |
| 08_1_17 | 0.92 (0.75, 1.14) | 1.17 (1, 1.38) | 0.92 (0.75, 1.14) | 0.93 (0.76, 1.12) | 1.11 (0.94, 1.3) |
| 08_2_21 | 0.99 (0.63, 1.39) | 1.14 (0.79, 1.47) | 0.73 (0.56, 0.95) | 0.99 (0.74, 1.29) | 0.65 (0.41, 1.01) |
| 08_2_22 | 0.96 (0.75, 1.27) | 0.92 (0.74, 1.12) | 1.01 (0.79, 1.29) | 1.02 (0.78, 1.34) | 0.87 (0.69, 1.11) |
| 08_2_23 | 0.98 (0.84, 1.21) | 0.97 (0.83, 1.18) | 0.98 (0.8, 1.22) | 0.81 (0.65, 1) | 1.15 (1.01, 1.31) |
| 08_2_24 | 0.82 (0.66, 1.05) | 1 (0.83, 1.2) | 0.86 (0.68, 1.09) | 0.83 (0.64, 1.08) | 0.81 (0.67, 0.98) |
| 08_2_25 | 1.58 (0.83, 2.21) | 1.68 (1.07, 2.23) | 1.13 (0.9, 1.43) | 1 (0.77, 1.29) | 0.95 (0.77, 1.17) |
| 08_2_26 | 1.51 (1.27, 1.86) | 1.45 (1.25, 1.87) | 1.42 (1.21, 1.67) | 1.55 (1.31, 1.87) | 1.44 (1.21, 1.72) |
| 08_2_27 | 0.77 (0.58, 1.04) | 1.29 (1.06, 1.55) | 1.07 (0.79, 1.44) | 1.27 (0.94, 1.7) | 0.77 (0.58, 1.04) |
| 08_2_28 | 1.48 (1.17, 2.01) | 1.45 (1.21, 1.9) | 1.36 (0.99, 1.89) | 1.53 (1.12, 2.1) | 1.46 (1.23, 1.74) |
| 08_2_29 | 0.96 (0.79, 1.16) | 0.93 (0.78, 1.07) | 0.87 (0.74, 1.03) | 0.97 (0.81, 1.18) | 0.89 (0.77, 1.03) |
| 08_3_31 | 0.89 (0.78, 1.02) | 0.86 (0.69, 1.1) | 0.93 (0.84, 1.04) | 1.1 (0.99, 1.24) | 0.89 (0.78, 1.02) |
| 08_3_32 | 1.11 (0.96, 1.28) | 1.36 (1.04, 1.52) | 0.99 (0.87, 1.13) | 1.27 (1.11, 1.45) | 1.11 (0.96, 1.28) |
| 08_3_33 | 1.03 (0.88, 1.23) | 1.12 (0.96, 1.27) | 1.01 (0.89, 1.15) | 1.16 (1.01, 1.31) | 1.01 (0.88, 1.16) |
| 08_3_35 | 1.01 (0.9, 1.11) | 1.02 (0.93, 1.11) | 0.97 (0.88, 1.07) | 1.01 (0.91, 1.12) | 0.98 (0.89, 1.08) |
| 08_4_41 | 0.88 (0.8, 0.98) | 0.92 (0.81, 1.07) | 0.89 (0.8, 0.99) | 0.86 (0.78, 0.95) | 0.89 (0.8, 0.99) |
| 08_4_42 | 0.84 (0.72, 1.26) | 1.11 (0.95, 1.28) | 1.07 (0.96, 1.19) | 1.18 (1.04, 1.33) | 0.83 (0.72, 0.94) |
| 08_4_43 | 0.8 (0.69, 1.17) | 1.1 (0.9, 1.25) | 0.79 (0.68, 0.9) | 0.79 (0.69, 0.9) | 0.94 (0.84, 1.06) |
| 08_5_50 | 1.31 (1.08, 1.63) | 1.49 (1.25, 1.74) | 1.18 (0.98, 1.41) | 1.44 (1.21, 1.72) | 1.29 (1.07, 1.56) |
| 08_5_51 | 1.29 (0.89, 1.54) | 1.39 (1.15, 1.55) | 1.04 (0.86, 1.27) | 1.37 (1.13, 1.67) | 1.15 (0.86, 1.53) |
| 08_5_52 | 1.13 (0.96, 1.61) | 1.5 (1.19, 1.73) | 1.06 (0.87, 1.28) | 1.12 (0.91, 1.35) | 1.12 (0.95, 1.3) |
| 08_5_53 | 1.2 (1.04, 1.38) | 1.23 (1.05, 1.45) | 1.1 (0.88, 1.35) | 0.97 (0.79, 1.18) | 1.19 (1.05, 1.36) |
| 08_1_AA | 1.04 (0.92, 1.19) | 1.14 (0.98, 1.3) | 1.04 (0.9, 1.2) | 1.07 (0.94, 1.21) | 1.04 (0.92, 1.19) |
| 08_2_AA | 1.02 (0.85, 1.17) | 1.04 (0.86, 1.18) | 1 (0.85, 1.17) | 1.05 (0.88, 1.23) | 0.97 (0.85, 1.11) |
| 08_3_AA | 1 (0.91, 1.09) | 1 (0.92, 1.09) | 0.97 (0.87, 1.07) | 1.07 (0.97, 1.18) | 0.98 (0.88, 1.07) |
| 08_4_AA | 0.89 (0.81, 1) | 0.89 (0.79, 1.07) | 0.89 (0.81, 0.96) | 0.89 (0.82, 0.97) | 0.94 (0.86, 1.01) |
| 08_5_AA | 1.08 (0.92, 1.4) | 1.3 (1.03, 1.49) | 1.1 (0.95, 1.28) | 1.22 (1.05, 1.41) | 1.06 (0.92, 1.24) |
| 08_A_AA | 0.99 (0.91, 1.08) | 0.99 (0.9, 1.11) | 0.98 (0.9, 1.09) | 1.05 (0.95, 1.15) | 0.99 (0.91, 1.08) |
Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights
Weights for each of the models from cross validation
| groups | Synthetic Controls | Time trend | Time trend (no offset) | STL+PCA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08_1_11 | 0.296 | 0.000 | 0.426 | 0.278 |
| 08_1_12 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 08_1_13 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 08_1_15 | 0.111 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.889 |
| 08_1_17 | 0.000 | 0.999 | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| 08_2_21 | 0.308 | 0.173 | 0.519 | 0.000 |
| 08_2_22 | 0.589 | 0.000 | 0.411 | 0.000 |
| 08_2_23 | 0.942 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.058 |
| 08_2_24 | 0.068 | 0.000 | 0.092 | 0.840 |
| 08_2_25 | 0.782 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.218 |
| 08_2_26 | 0.389 | 0.030 | 0.581 | 0.000 |
| 08_2_27 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 |
| 08_2_28 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.484 | 0.516 |
| 08_2_29 | 0.341 | 0.000 | 0.659 | 0.000 |
| 08_3_31 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.999 |
| 08_3_32 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 |
| 08_3_33 | 0.240 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.760 |
| 08_3_35 | 0.596 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.404 |
| 08_4_41 | 0.045 | 0.592 | 0.250 | 0.114 |
| 08_4_42 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.168 | 0.832 |
| 08_4_43 | 0.143 | 0.857 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 08_5_50 | 0.027 | 0.000 | 0.137 | 0.836 |
| 08_5_51 | 0.452 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.548 |
| 08_5_52 | 0.125 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.875 |
| 08_5_53 | 0.232 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.768 |
| 08_1_AA | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 |
| 08_2_AA | 0.737 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.263 |
| 08_3_AA | 0.749 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.251 |
| 08_4_AA | 0.200 | 0.631 | 0.000 | 0.170 |
| 08_5_AA | 0.168 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.832 |
| 08_A_AA | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 |
Inclusion Probabilities
| Group | Greatest Inclusion Variable | Greatest Inclusion Probability | Second Greatest Inclusion Variable | Second Greatest Inclusion Probability | Third Greatest Inclusion Variable | Third Greatest Inclusion Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08_1_11 | N00_99 | 0.9566794 | a10_b99_nopneumo | 0.1313781 | ach_noj | 0.1250294 |
| 08_1_12 | ach_noj | 0.1298632 | I00_99 | 0.0918114 | N00_99 | 0.0893311 |
| 08_1_13 | ach_noj | 0.4760018 | I00_99 | 0.2152938 | C00_D48 | 0.1778642 |
| 08_1_15 | N00_99 | 0.9396948 | E00_99 | 0.0782560 | ach_noj | 0.0721666 |
| 08_1_17 | ach_noj | 0.9149632 | E00_99 | 0.2273619 | E10_14 | 0.2223731 |
| 08_2_21 | D50_89 | 0.8749244 | I00_99 | 0.2380769 | N39 | 0.1856755 |
| 08_2_22 | I00_99 | 0.6312449 | ach_noj | 0.4763394 | E10_14 | 0.0715865 |
| 08_2_23 | M00_99 | 0.9655936 | E00_99 | 0.8286428 | E10_14 | 0.1548304 |
| 08_2_24 | I60_64 | 0.9820904 | a10_b99_nopneumo | 0.5401525 | ach_noj | 0.4701233 |
| 08_2_25 | E00_99 | 0.9882633 | I00_99 | 0.8374896 | E10_14 | 0.2892257 |
| 08_2_26 | S00_T99 | 0.9415834 | ach_noj | 0.8158441 | E00_99 | 0.2028184 |
| 08_2_27 | I60_64 | 0.3151084 | ach_noj | 0.2105602 | E10_14 | 0.1935400 |
| 08_2_28 | K00_99 | 0.2364395 | C00_D48 | 0.1042398 | ach_noj | 0.0949976 |
| 08_2_29 | I00_99 | 0.5675501 | ach_noj | 0.3888210 | I60_64 | 0.0763523 |
| 08_3_31 | ach_noj | 0.8338989 | M00_99 | 0.1878722 | N39 | 0.1169627 |
| 08_3_32 | H00_99_SY | 0.8827894 | A41 | 0.8202820 | ach_noj | 0.2003184 |
| 08_3_33 | D50_89 | 0.2549701 | N00_99 | 0.2142492 | H00_99_SY | 0.1300944 |
| 08_3_35 | A41 | 0.9698434 | E00_99 | 0.0876353 | E10_14 | 0.0570507 |
| 08_4_41 | A41 | 0.9959594 | N00_99 | 0.4945217 | ach_noj | 0.3439978 |
| 08_4_42 | ach_noj | 0.9818160 | A41 | 0.3470775 | pandemic | 0.2754416 |
| 08_4_43 | A41 | 1.0000000 | E10_14 | 0.7947447 | M00_99 | 0.1375145 |
| 08_5_50 | E00_99 | 0.4389210 | N39 | 0.1079887 | ach_noj | 0.0610057 |
| 08_5_51 | ach_noj | 0.0746387 | E00_99 | 0.0548453 | I00_99 | 0.0413576 |
| 08_5_52 | E00_99 | 0.6979070 | G00_99_SY | 0.2741004 | C00_D48 | 0.2072047 |
| 08_5_53 | ach_noj | 0.8086418 | a10_b99_nopneumo | 0.1945805 | I00_99 | 0.0895442 |
| 08_1_AA | a10_b99_nopneumo | 0.4293479 | ach_noj | 0.3202922 | N00_99 | 0.2116752 |
| 08_2_AA | I00_99 | 0.8094848 | L00_99 | 0.2636119 | ach_noj | 0.2437557 |
| 08_3_AA | A41 | 0.9992494 | N00_99 | 0.0757039 | N39 | 0.0338120 |
| 08_4_AA | A41 | 0.9999876 | S00_T99 | 0.6970962 | N39 | 0.1562734 |
| 08_5_AA | E00_99 | 0.6937011 | I60_64 | 0.2032903 | N39 | 0.1520439 |
| 08_A_AA | A41 | 0.7017816 | I00_99 | 0.5594649 | H00_99_SY | 0.2602208 |
Weight Sensitivity Analysis
| Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 1 | Inclusion Probability of Control 1 | Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 2 | Inclusion Probability of Control 2 | Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 3 | Inclusion Probability of Control 3 | Control 3 Estimate (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08_1_11 | 1.38 (1.16, 1.6) | N00_99 | 0.96 | 1.26 (1.03, 1.63) | a10_b99_nopneumo | 0.13 | 1.26 (1.03, 1.59) | S00_T99 | 0.05 | 1.26 (1.04, 1.6) |
| 08_1_12 | 1.34 (1.1, 1.6) | I00_99 | 0.09 | 1.34 (1.06, 1.63) | N00_99 | 0.09 | 1.33 (1.06, 1.57) | pandemic | 0.08 | 1.31 (1.04, 1.57) |
| 08_1_13 | 1.09 (0.83, 1.37) | I00_99 | 0.22 | 1.1 (0.84, 1.4) | C00_D48 | 0.18 | 1.05 (0.82, 1.38) | N00_99 | 0.07 | 1.06 (0.82, 1.42) |
| 08_1_15 | 1.21 (1.01, 1.42) | N00_99 | 0.94 | 1.18 (0.77, 1.46) | E00_99 | 0.08 | 1.18 (0.77, 1.45) | N39 | 0.06 | 1.18 (0.79, 1.46) |
| 08_1_17 | 1.17 (1, 1.38) | E00_99 | 0.23 | 1.15 (0.97, 1.36) | E10_14 | 0.22 | 1.15 (0.97, 1.35) | I00_99 | 0.1 | 1.16 (1, 1.36) |
| 08_2_21 | 1.14 (0.79, 1.47) | D50_89 | 0.87 | 1 (0.68, 1.44) | I00_99 | 0.24 | 0.98 (0.69, 1.46) | N39 | 0.19 | 0.94 (0.66, 1.35) |
| 08_2_22 | 0.92 (0.74, 1.12) | I00_99 | 0.63 | 0.9 (0.72, 1.12) | E10_14 | 0.07 | 0.9 (0.72, 1.12) | D50_89 | 0.06 | 0.9 (0.71, 1.12) |
| 08_2_23 | 0.97 (0.83, 1.18) | M00_99 | 0.97 | 1.18 (0.97, 1.34) | E00_99 | 0.83 | 1.2 (0.96, 1.35) | E10_14 | 0.15 | 1.19 (0.96, 1.57) |
| 08_2_24 | 1 (0.83, 1.2) | I60_64 | 0.98 | 1.2 (0.97, 1.48) | a10_b99_nopneumo | 0.54 | 1.2 (0.96, 1.5) | I00_99 | 0.04 | 1.16 (0.9, 1.4) |
| 08_2_25 | 1.68 (1.07, 2.23) | E00_99 | 0.99 | 1.69 (1.07, 2.33) | I00_99 | 0.84 | 1.59 (0.99, 1.99) | E10_14 | 0.29 | 1.63 (1.03, 2.01) |
| 08_2_26 | 1.45 (1.25, 1.87) | S00_T99 | 0.94 | 1.59 (1.33, 1.95) | E00_99 | 0.2 | 1.47 (1.2, 1.74) | I00_99 | 0.17 | 1.5 (1.2, 1.74) |
| 08_2_27 | 1.29 (1.06, 1.55) | I60_64 | 0.32 | 1.31 (1.05, 1.59) | E10_14 | 0.19 | 1.33 (1.08, 1.6) | a10_b99_nopneumo | 0.11 | 1.32 (1.06, 1.59) |
| 08_2_28 | 1.45 (1.21, 1.9) | K00_99 | 0.24 | 1.44 (1.19, 2.07) | C00_D48 | 0.1 | 1.43 (1.19, 1.94) | E00_99 | 0.09 | 1.41 (1.18, 1.76) |
| 08_2_29 | 0.93 (0.78, 1.07) | I00_99 | 0.57 | 0.89 (0.66, 1.05) | I60_64 | 0.08 | 0.89 (0.7, 1.05) | K00_99 | 0.06 | 0.89 (0.66, 1.05) |
| 08_3_31 | 0.86 (0.69, 1.1) | M00_99 | 0.19 | 0.87 (0.73, 1.09) | N39 | 0.12 | 0.87 (0.74, 1.08) | S00_T99 | 0.11 | 0.86 (0.74, 1.04) |
| 08_3_32 | 1.36 (1.04, 1.52) | H00_99_SY | 0.88 | 1.14 (0.93, 1.51) | A41 | 0.82 | 1.12 (0.91, 1.52) | a10_b99_nopneumo | 0.05 | 1.1 (0.9, 1.39) |
| 08_3_33 | 1.12 (0.96, 1.27) | D50_89 | 0.25 | 1.12 (0.95, 1.31) | N00_99 | 0.21 | 1.14 (0.96, 1.3) | H00_99_SY | 0.13 | 1.14 (0.9, 1.29) |
| 08_3_35 | 1.02 (0.93, 1.11) | A41 | 0.97 | 1.08 (0.94, 1.26) | E00_99 | 0.09 | 1.03 (0.91, 1.15) | E10_14 | 0.06 | 1.03 (0.9, 1.16) |
| 08_4_41 | 0.92 (0.81, 1.07) | A41 | 1 | 0.98 (0.81, 1.14) | N00_99 | 0.49 | 1.01 (0.81, 1.15) | C00_D48 | 0.28 | 1.02 (0.83, 1.15) |
| 08_4_42 | 1.11 (0.95, 1.28) | A41 | 0.35 | 1.09 (0.87, 1.28) | pandemic | 0.28 | 1.07 (0.82, 1.26) | a10_b99_nopneumo | 0.25 | 1.09 (0.78, 1.28) |
| 08_4_43 | 1.1 (0.9, 1.25) | A41 | 1 | 0.97 (0.72, 1.26) | E10_14 | 0.79 | 0.87 (0.67, 1.27) | M00_99 | 0.14 | 0.84 (0.67, 1.27) |
| 08_5_50 | 1.49 (1.25, 1.74) | E00_99 | 0.44 | 1.57 (1.31, 1.79) | N39 | 0.11 | 1.58 (1.28, 1.77) | N00_99 | 0.05 | 1.59 (1.24, 1.78) |
| 08_5_51 | 1.39 (1.15, 1.55) | E00_99 | 0.05 | 1.39 (1.04, 1.55) | I00_99 | 0.04 | 1.38 (1.03, 1.56) | I60_64 | 0.03 | 1.39 (1.02, 1.56) |
| 08_5_52 | 1.5 (1.19, 1.73) | E00_99 | 0.7 | 1.42 (1.06, 1.78) | G00_99_SY | 0.27 | 1.4 (1.04, 1.75) | C00_D48 | 0.21 | 1.39 (1.03, 1.73) |
| 08_5_53 | 1.23 (1.05, 1.45) | a10_b99_nopneumo | 0.19 | 1.24 (1.06, 1.48) | I00_99 | 0.09 | 1.24 (1.06, 1.47) | K00_99 | 0.06 | 1.24 (1.06, 1.47) |
| 08_1_AA | 1.14 (0.98, 1.3) | a10_b99_nopneumo | 0.43 | 1.16 (0.97, 1.32) | N00_99 | 0.21 | 1.15 (0.93, 1.32) | L00_99 | 0.17 | 1.16 (0.96, 1.32) |
| 08_2_AA | 1.04 (0.86, 1.18) | I00_99 | 0.81 | 0.96 (0.79, 1.13) | L00_99 | 0.26 | 0.97 (0.78, 1.13) | a10_b99_nopneumo | 0.13 | 0.99 (0.83, 1.15) |
| 08_3_AA | 1 (0.92, 1.09) | A41 | 1 | 1.08 (0.96, 1.19) | N00_99 | 0.08 | 1.07 (0.94, 1.19) | N39 | 0.03 | 1.07 (0.92, 1.18) |
| 08_4_AA | 0.89 (0.79, 1.07) | A41 | 1 | 0.8 (0.7, 1.06) | S00_T99 | 0.7 | 0.88 (0.77, 1.1) | N39 | 0.16 | 0.97 (0.78, 1.14) |
| 08_5_AA | 1.3 (1.03, 1.49) | E00_99 | 0.69 | 1.2 (0.9, 1.43) | I60_64 | 0.2 | 1.21 (0.9, 1.43) | N39 | 0.15 | 1.19 (0.91, 1.41) |
| 08_A_AA | 0.99 (0.9, 1.11) | A41 | 0.7 | 1.06 (0.92, 1.19) | I00_99 | 0.56 | 1.04 (0.92, 1.15) | H00_99_SY | 0.26 | 1 (0.88, 1.1) |
Plots
08_1_11
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
08_1_12
## Warning: Removed 2 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
08_1_13
08_1_15
08_1_17
08_2_21
08_2_22
08_2_23
08_2_24
08_2_25
08_2_26
## Warning: Removed 3 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 2 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 3 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 3 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
08_2_27
08_2_28
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 2 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
08_2_29
08_3_31
08_3_32
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
08_3_33
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
08_3_35
08_4_41
08_4_42
08_4_43
08_5_50
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 4 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
08_5_51
## Warning: Removed 3 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
08_5_52
## Warning: Removed 4 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
08_5_53
08_1_AA
08_2_AA
08_3_AA
08_4_AA
08_5_AA
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
08_A_AA
